ANALYST Q&A



Peter Jarich

Head of GSMA Intelligence,
(GSMAi)

Tim Hatt

Head of research,
GSMAi

Calum Dewar

Director of forecasting,
GSMAi

Sylwia Kechich

Principle analyst,
GSMAi

Jan Stryjak

Senior manager,
GSMAi

Q: What will be the hot topics at the conference and the exhibition?


Peter Jarich
I won’t bother calling the obvious – 5G and IoT. I’m looking for AI and LTE to be the themes that generate real buzz. AI gets a shout out because it’s critical to making things like 5G and IoT work. LTE gets a shout out because it will continue to do the heavy lifting on the mobile broadband front while 5G ramps.

Tim Hatt
For developed Asia, the buzz is still around how to make the best of 5G and IoT. However, the tone of debate will be more sobering compared with the evangelism of the past two years to get to fundamental questions of business case and value chain positioning. For emerging Asia, the focus is on getting people onto the mobile internet.

Calum Dewar
5G, of course, and how it will support IoT, AI and AR/VR use cases in improving our daily lives. However, with the UN SDGs having an increased presence in the theme and content of this year’s show, there will also be a broader focus on how existing mobile technologies can continue to enhance quality of life and generate economic growth in developing markets.

Sylwia Kechiche
In Barcelona we got a good steer on how US operators (specifically T-Mobile and Sprint) are gearing up for 5G launches. It would be surprising if we don’t hear more details from the Chinese operators on their plans, which will be fascinating given the level of investment that’s been talked about.

Jan Stryjak
5G, IoT and AI will be the key focus areas, although these have been the hot topics for a while, so it will be interesting to see if anything new will be discussed. Having said that, real-life, tangible applications of these technologies are becoming a reality, and I will be keen to find demos of these exhibited around the show.

Q: What are you looking forward to in Shanghai and what does MWCS offer that Barcelona doesn’t?


Peter Jarich
On one level, I look for every event (MWC or otherwise) to give some evidence of how new technologies are being put to work – where rubber meets road. China’s momentum with IoT, then, provides a unique opportunity to see how specific verticals are being supported. I hear we’ll even have a connected yak!

Tim Hatt
The most interesting thing about Shanghai is that we are watching in real time as China becomes a world leading technological force. The Shanghai event does a good job of demonstrating the practical side of the vision. Operator trials of 5G drone use cases, for example, give insights into what potential solutions and revenue models could look like.

Calum Dewar
As this is my first MWCS, I’m looking forward to everything! But in particular the latest examples of how Chinese and other Asian consumers are leading adoption of new digital services, from financial, entertainment and lifestyle applications via messaging platforms to real-life applications of AR/VR in retail, entertainment and industry.

Sylwia Kechiche
MWC Shanghai is more tailored to consumers than Barcelona. That appeals to me as someone who follows the tech industry on a personal and professional level. Last year we had drone racing, and this year there will be a dedicated zone for AR, MR and VR – with so many cutting-edge device vendors located in the region, I’m hoping to see a wide range of devices and experiences.

Jan Stryjak
MWCS is unique, bringing together one of the most diverse regions on the planet. On the one hand, China and some other developed markets are at the forefront of global technological innovation, particularly when it comes to 5G and IoT, and the event is a perfect opportunity to see that in action.

Q: Where do you see the biggest opportunities for mobile operators in the next 12 months?


Peter Jarich
There’s no shortage of new service opportunities in front of operators in the near-term. As they all figure out the best ways to execute on them (each with a unique strategy), the biggest opportunity revolves around transforming their networks.

Tim Hatt
2018 is more about back-to-basics than future opportunities. In developed Asia mobile revenue growth deteriorated to low, single digits in 2017 as LTE neared a penetration plateau. Capex, in turn, will soon exit the ‘in between’ phase post LTE and before 5G.

Calum Dewar
The most important long-term opportunity operators must focus on now is the 5G business model for enterprise. Last year, 69 per cent of 750 operator CEOs we surveyed identified enterprise as the key source of revenue from 5G. But selling connectivity alone won’t be enough to move the needle or tap the full extent of 5G, so operators must plan to move higher up the value chain to platforms, application and services.

Sylwia Kechiche
Too many opportunities that headline at conferences are long-term in nature. I think the focus over the next 12 months should lie with IoT - mobile IoT networks (NB-IoT and LTE-M) will continue to grow in scale. Mobile operators need to position themselves quickly to capture more value within this expanding ecosystem.

Jan Stryjak
The fact is that there remains a large digital divide in Asia Pacific. Two-thirds of the region’s population (1.4 billion people) still do not subscribe to mobile services, and almost 60 per cent (2.4 billion people) do not use the internet. This leaves much room for growth.

Q: What about challenges – what do operators need to watch out for?


Peter Jarich
One word: HYPE. That’s not to say that the hype around things like 5G, IoT or AI isn’t justified. They all have the potential to be transformative technologies. But, so often, the promise that gets highlighted is long-term in nature and cannot be achieved right away. Focusing on the end-game before figuring out how to get there is dangerous.

Tim Hatt
Four things. Extending the longevity of and monetising LTE. Adding a content offering to core telco bundles without huge M&A spending. Prioritising a limited number of high potential approaches with 5G and IoT, and being willing to fail fast. And anticipating the changing nature and lines of competition.

Calum Dewar
The flipside of the above is the investment required to build out a 5G network that can deliver these platforms, applications and services in a way that differentiates from 4G. I’ll be looking for examples of sustainable network densification models and NFV deployment that can address the immediate requirements as well as longer-term opportunities.

Sylwia Kechiche
Operators have become accustomed to disruption in every facet of their businesses, and this will only intensify as they look to serve emerging IoT and 5G use cases. I’m particularly keen to see how operators in the region are engaging with enterprises. A number have already set up labs and other means to collaborate on use cases and business models, but we need to see some results.

Jan Stryjak
Connecting the unconnected comes with challenges. Only by addressing barriers – such as network coverage, affordability, digital skills and the availability of online content and services – can operators look to bring mobile internet usage in emerging markets in line with more developed countries.

Q: What is the most overhyped sector in 2018?


Peter Jarich
Is it fair to say that ‘hype’ is over-hyped? Again, promising technologies are almost always hyped up at some point; without a focus on the long-term potential, getting a technology off the ground is tough. But it’s that same focus that leads to hype. That’s okay. It’s natural.

Tim Hatt
AR and VR continue to go long on talk and (very) short on monetisation.

Calum Dewar
Blockchain. In principle there’s a huge opportunity for it to be applied well beyond cryptocurrencies, but at the moment it’s difficult to see how blockchain can scale significantly due to its decentralised nature i.e. every connection in the network being required to process every transaction.

Sylwia Kechiche
Blockchain. Clearly overhyped given the valuations currently held by many cryptocurrencies. Often with a technology in the midst of a hype bubble there is underlying value that will emerge over time to form viable services. Blockchain is the perfect example of this and could be applied to so many parts of the economy. But it is not there yet.

Jan Stryjak
The 5G hype train is still running at full speed. While some players are dialing back that hype as deployments get closer, there is still a huge amount of anticipation over potential 5G opportunities, often with visions spanning decades and bordering on the realm of science-fiction. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing – it keeps things entertaining!