Satellite: go big or go home?

Momentum in the telco-satellite convergence story is one of the most notable trends in telecoms over the last 3 years. This is a global rather than regional story, although the pace of commercialisation varies across the world.

Of the 100 telco-satellite partnerships we track for D2D and backhaul, around 10% are in the Middle East region, slightly ahead of its comparable mobile subscriber share and underlining the early move to monetise 5G NTN standards through coverage extension and roaming. Regional operators and satellite players — for example Yahsat in the UAE — are already deploying D2D strategies to bring voice, SMS and IoT connectivity via satellite to standard smartphones across areas lacking reliable terrestrial coverage. We’re looking forward to discussing this topic at MWC25 Doha where it will feature heavily.

Three important questions frame how we think about the outlook.

Does Starlink dominate the field? What of the rest?

The biggest announcement in the satellite space the last 6 months was the agreement by Starlink-parent SpaceX to acquire Echostar’s Mobile Satellite Service (MSS) spectrum in a deal totalling $17 billion.

The move significantly enhances Starlink’s position in the rapidly growing direct-to-device (D2D) satellite market. While Starlink already accounts for around 90% of satellite orbital capacity, its ambitions are limited by physics and spectrum access. The move highlights the strategic value of MSS spectrum, which is harmonised and regulated, avoiding the interference and service continuity issues that come with repurposing IMT spectrum licensed to mobile operators.

This approach, also pursued by AST SpaceMobile through acquisitions in the US and UK, enables more efficient cross-border satellite networks. Additionally, the deal opens the door for Starlink to offer direct-to-consumer D2D satellite services using MSS spectrum. This could complement its broadband offerings and run alongside existing wholesale D2D agreements, providing a new competitive strategy if Starlink chooses to pursue it.

The rest of the satellite industry is now playing catch-up even further against Starlink’s sizeable capacity lead. Competitors like AST, operating at LEO with over 30 operator partnerships (mostly at the trial stage), have smaller planned constellations, and GEO providers such as Viasat and Yahsat are consolidating to support future LEO projects. MSS companies are expected to strengthen ties with mobile operators, leveraging dependable, interference-free service, though widespread handset compatibility with satellite networks may still be 3-4 years away.

Will people pay?

We estimate an addressable revenue opportunity for telcos from D2D satellite of around $30-35B by 2035 – equivalent to a 2% uplift on current global sector revenues. While not a hard forecast, this figure underscores the commercial potential if consumer willingness to pay translates into real adoption. Our surveys indicate that over 60% of consumers globally would pay extra for satellite-enabled services, whether on prepaid or contract plans, confirming that the perceived value of universal connectivity — especially in emergencies or remote locations — is strong.

For operators in the GCC and wider Middle East, this willingness to pay suggests revenue (or at least churn) upside if offerings are positioned correctly. The region combines high device penetration, strong premium brand positioning, and strategic national mandates for connectivity coverage (eg Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and the UAE’s space tech agenda). These factors mean operators can integrate satellite access as a premium add-on for high-value consumer and enterprise segments. As with India or Indonesia, markets in the broader MENA region with lower ARPU but high demand for reliable coverage could still yield meaningful incremental revenues if pricing is tailored to local affordability and usage needs.

In practical terms, pricing strategies are likely to split between charging for satellite access against bundling it in for free, typically for higher end tariffs. One of the things that will influence willingness to pay is service capability and performance that governs whether satellite can get beyond text and low bandwidth services (like SOS) to voice and mobile data. Spectrum access and readiness is the most important factor here, which also remains a fundamental limitation for most providers’ absent not-as-yet-evident engineering improvements to constellation performance such as aggregation and dynamic beam movements.

How does the IoT dimension play out?

Satellite for IoT is one of the most interesting storylines of 2025. This rests on the total addressable market of 2.5-3 billion IoT devices across a range of industries and the fact that 20-25% of enterprise CTO and CTIOs say they intend to incorporate NTNs into their connectivity portfolios.

Our base case is that IoT revenues enabled by satellite can get to $10B per year by 2035, roughly a third of the $30-35B D2D addressable revenue overall and 25% of what mobile operators make on IoT as of now. Pricing is, however, highly variable with ARPU for IoT modules usually well below $1 per month (except connected car subscriptions), so overall addressable revenues have a wide range of uncertainty.

The upcoming Release 19 standards will introduce features like RedCap for NTNs in IoT, intensifying competition among providers such as Skylo, Orbcomm, Iridium and other legacy satellite companies. Starlink could further disrupt the market by driving prices down, though this would require accepting lower margins.

Telcos in the GCC should be mindful of fast moving commercialisation.

While the global rollout is still in trial or early phases, regional players (satellite and mobile) are already moving. For example, Space42 (UAE) in collaboration with Gatehouse Satcom has demonstrated NB-IoT over satellite with D2D readiness targeted for Q4 2025. IoT brings an added dimension of customer segmentation given the plethora of industrial use cases available (from precision agriculture to oil & gas) and objective to deploy satellite D2D where it adds most incremental value rather than replicating terrestrial services.